| 07 June 2010
This might seem like an odd time to write this, what with the Boston Celtics beating the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 2 and, in the process, stealing home court advantage in the NBA Finals. But history states that the Boston Celtics are history in this series - the Lakers should leave the Finals as champions once again. And we're not just talking about an obscure historical stat from the annals of basketball history pointing towards a Lakers championship - we're talking about three key L.A. advantages that should swing the outcome of the rest of this series.
He Who Strikes First is the Most Zen
There are numerous remarkable stats associated with 'The Zen Master' Phil Jackson, but perhaps the most impressive is in regards to Game 1 of playoff series. Jackson's teams have never lost a series in which they won the first game. Never. Never ever. Jackson is 47-0 in series where he has coached the winning team in Game 1. And don't bother coming at me with the argument that he always has the best players on his teams - the best players are often the most difficult to control and coach. If you don't strike first against Jackson, your fate has been sealed.
First Cut is the Deepest
Staying on the subject of the importance of striking first, even when you remove Phil Jackson from the coach's bench, you are still in trouble if you don't win the first game of the NBA Finals. Only 27% of the time have the loser of Game 1 of the Finals still gone on to win the championship. Obviously it can happen - Miami lost the first two games in 2006 and still won, plus the Celtics have lost Game 1 and come back to win the title three times versus the Lakers in the past - but it is never a good practice to bet against history.
Size Matters
This is a point I've tried to hammer home lots the past few years, so here it goes again: you must have a current All-NBA big man on your roster in order to win the NBA title. The last team to break this rule was Michael Jordan's Bulls back in the 1990s. The Lakers have Pau Gasol; the Celtics have a past-his-expiry-date Kevin Garnett. And through the first two games of the Finals, both players are living up to these labels. Gasol is averaging 24 points, 11 boards and 4.5 blocks per game; Garnett 11 points and 4 boards. And, to make matters worse, the hobbled Andrew Bynum is outplaying Kendrick Perkins. Say all you want about Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo, but the outcome of this series will ultimately come down to the play of the big men. Advantage: Lakers.
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